Strategy
41. Is Italy more seasonal than the rest of Europe? A national case, region by region
Italy measured with the indicators used across Europe and for Japan: July and August share, Gini index, residents and international guests, regions, with the calculation redone step by step
"Italy is too seasonal" is a line you hear at tourism conferences, in council meetings and at seaside bars in November. But how seasonal is it, compared with whom, and where? This article is a national case study: it measures Italy with the same indicators used for every European country and for Japan, then goes region by region. The aim is not to rank places by merit but to give anyone working on the ground verifiable numbers to start from, and a method they can reuse for their own country.
In short
- Yes, Italy is more seasonal than the European average: in 2024 the Gini coefficient of monthly nights spent was 0.302 against 0.247 for the European Union, and July and August accounted for 34.5% of nights against 31.3% (our calculation on Eurostat data).
- Among 30 European countries (the EU 27 plus Norway, Switzerland and Iceland), Italy ranks fifth by Gini, after Croatia, Greece, Bulgaria and Cyprus, in both 2024 and 2025.
- Japan, measured the same way on official 2024 data, has a Gini of 0.052: an almost flat year.
- Differences within Italy are bigger than between countries: from 58.8% of nights in July and August in Calabria to 20.6% in Lazio, the region of Rome (2024).
How we measured
- Data: nights spent in all tourist accommodation (hotels, short-stay accommodation, campsites), month by month. For countries, Eurostat table tour_occ_nim, updated 1 October 2026; for regions, table tour_occ_nin2m, updated 22 September 2026; for Japan, the Overnight Travel Statistics Survey of the Japan Tourism Agency, confirmed 2024 values published 27 June 2025.
- Indicators: the July and August share (in Europe it almost always matches the two peak months, the indicator Eurostat uses for regions), the Gini coefficient with the formula that reproduces Eurostat's published values (EU 0.25, Croatia 0.59 in 2025), and the ratio between the peak month and the monthly average. The step-by-step explanation is in Tourism seasonality: what it is and how to measure it.
- Reference year: 2024 for Italy, because from 2025 Italian statistics also include private rentals run on a non-business basis, and ISTAT warns that totals are not comparable with earlier years (ISTAT). 2025 is shown where useful, with that warning.
- Date of calculation: 1 October 2026.
Is Italy more seasonal than the rest of Europe?
| Area | Year | July + August share | Gini | Peak-to-average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 2024 | 34.5% | 0.302 | 2.17 |
| Italy (with series break) | 2025 | 34.3% | 0.302 | 2.14 |
| European Union (27) | 2024 | 31.3% | 0.247 | 1.97 |
| European Union (27) | 2025 | 31.2% | 0.249 | 1.95 |
| Croatia | 2024 | 55.9% | 0.589 | 3.48 |
| Greece | 2024 | 41.5% | 0.489 | 2.59 |
| France | 2024 | 36.0% | 0.284 | 2.36 |
| Spain | 2024 | 27.6% | 0.214 | 1.75 |
| Portugal | 2024 | 26.1% | 0.196 | 1.72 |
| Austria | 2024 | 25.5% | 0.191 | 1.62 |
| Germany | 2024 | 24.3% | 0.166 | 1.48 |
| Japan | 2024 | 18.7% | 0.052 | 1.21 |
Source: Play the Event editorial calculation of 1 October 2026 on Eurostat tour_occ_nim and monthly data from the Japan Tourism Agency.
What the table says:
- Italy belongs to the group of seasonal Mediterranean countries, but is not at the top. Croatia and Greece have far more concentrated summers; France has a higher July and August share than Italy (36.0% against 34.5%) but a lower Gini, because the rest of its year is more even.
- Spain, despite being a beach destination, is less seasonal than the EU average. Part of the answer lies in its regions: the Canary Islands, with their mild winter, had a Gini of 0.040 in 2024, almost no seasonality at all (calculation on Eurostat tour_occ_nin2m).
- 2025 does not change the picture: the Gini stays at 0.302. But in Eurostat data Italian nights jump from 466 million in 2024 to 535 million in 2025, a jump that coincides with the wider survey coverage: do not read it as growth.
Italy's position among 30 European countries
Ranking the 27 EU countries plus Norway, Switzerland and Iceland by Gini, the top five in 2024 are Croatia (0.589), Greece (0.489), Bulgaria (0.400), Cyprus (0.349) and Italy (0.302); at the bottom are Slovakia (0.149), Malta (0.141) and Finland (0.128). In 2025 Italy is still fifth. Ranking by July and August share instead, Italy is sixth: Slovenia and France also come ahead, while Cyprus drops, because its season is long but its winter very weak. Two indicators, two orders: that is why they should be read together.
And outside Europe?
Japan is the most instructive comparison because it publishes an official monthly series of nights spent. In 2024 there were 659.1 million nights in total; the busiest month, August, accounted for 10.1% and the weakest, January, for 6.9% (Japan Tourism Agency, confirmed 2024 values). Splitting residents (Gini 0.057) from international guests (0.060) the curve stays flat; for international guests the peak month is October. Caveat: the two surveys classify accommodation differently, so compare the shape of the year, not the number of nights.
Residents and international visitors: two calendars
| Guests | July + August share | Gini | Peak month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Residents of Italy | 38.7% | 0.310 | August (21.6% of nights) |
| Non-residents | 31.0% | 0.303 | July (15.9% of nights) |
| European Union, residents of each country | 31.4% | 0.230 | August |
| European Union, non-residents | 31.3% | 0.266 | August |
Source: editorial calculation on Eurostat tour_occ_nim, 2024.
The clearest signal is domestic tourism: almost four nights in ten fall in July and August, and August alone is worth more than one night in five. This matches Eurostat, which counts four Italian regions among the ten most seasonal European regions for domestic tourists: Calabria, Puglia, Sardinia and Molise (Eurostat). ISTAT describes the same pattern by month: in the third quarter of 2025 Italians peaked in August (45.5 million nights) and international visitors in July (42.7 million), with international visitors accounting for 53.4% of the quarter's nights (ISTAT, tourist flows Q3 2025, in Italian).
For event organizers and accommodation providers the consequence is practical: shoulder months (June, September, October) weigh more for international guests than for domestic ones. An event in September speaks to a different audience than one in August. The same check is worth doing in any country that publishes nights by country of residence.
Region by region
| Region (NUTS 2) | July + August share | Gini | January share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calabria | 58.8% | 0.608 | 0.9% |
| Molise | 50.1% | 0.447 | 3.3% |
| Abruzzo | 48.1% | 0.436 | 3.7% |
| Apulia (Puglia) | 47.5% | 0.497 | 1.4% |
| Marche | 47.0% | 0.452 | 2.4% |
| Sardinia | 45.7% | 0.545 | 0.7% |
| Basilicata | 44.7% | 0.439 | 2.7% |
| Emilia-Romagna | 41.7% | 0.403 | 2.9% |
| Friuli-Venezia Giulia | 40.5% | 0.377 | 3.5% |
| Veneto | 37.6% | 0.372 | 2.8% |
| Tuscany | 36.0% | 0.358 | 2.6% |
| Autonomous Province of Trento | 35.5% | 0.330 | 10.6% |
| Liguria | 35.1% | 0.342 | 3.1% |
| Aosta Valley | 34.0% | 0.353 | 11.7% |
| Sicily | 33.7% | 0.356 | 2.4% |
| Campania | 31.0% | 0.320 | 2.6% |
| Autonomous Province of Bolzano | 29.9% | 0.243 | 8.8% |
| Umbria | 28.9% | 0.237 | 3.9% |
| Piedmont | 27.1% | 0.176 | 5.6% |
| Lombardy | 25.2% | 0.159 | 5.5% |
| Lazio | 20.6% | 0.122 | 5.1% |
Source: editorial calculation of 1 October 2026 on Eurostat tour_occ_nin2m, 2024, all tourist accommodation. For comparison, Eurostat reports 21% for Lazio and 58.8% for Calabria with its own top-two-months indicator (Eurostat).
Three groups stand out:
- The south and the Adriatic coast (Calabria, Molise, Abruzzo, Puglia, Marche, Sardinia, Basilicata): about half of all nights in two months, January below 4%. In Sardinia January accounts for 0.7%.
- The Alps (Aosta Valley, Trento, Bolzano): two seasons, summer and snow. January accounts for 8.8% to 11.7% of nights, so the July and August share alone understates the weight of winter.
- Big cities and business-travel regions (Lazio, Lombardy, Piedmont): the most even year, with a Gini between 0.12 and 0.18.
Comparison with similar European regions
| Region | July + August share 2024 | Gini 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Calabria (Italy) | 58.8% | 0.608 |
| Adriatic Croatia | 57.7% | 0.614 |
| Corsica (France) | 50.0% | 0.572 |
| Apulia (Italy) | 47.5% | 0.497 |
| South Aegean (Greece) | 41.8% | 0.532 |
| Crete (Greece) | 39.8% | 0.512 |
| Balearic Islands (Spain) | 35.8% | 0.466 |
| Catalonia (Spain) | 33.7% | 0.318 |
| Canary Islands (Spain) | 18.2% | 0.040 |
Source: editorial calculation on Eurostat tour_occ_nin2m. The Balearic Islands have a lower July and August share than Apulia but almost the same Gini: their season is longer, but January accounts for just 0.4% of nights.
Redo the calculation yourself: the Apulia example
Anyone working in a region can redo the numbers in fifteen minutes. Here are the steps, with real data for Apulia in 2024.
- Open Eurostat table tour_occ_nin2m and select the region, the year, nights spent by all residents ("Total") and all accommodation.
- Copy the twelve monthly figures. For Apulia in 2024: January 244,814, February 266,459, March 412,096, April 742,949, May 1,208,153, June 2,364,973, July 3,813,220, August 4,686,703, September 2,275,318, October 1,075,117, November 431,729, December 372,830. Total 17,894,361.
- July and August share: (3,813,220 + 4,686,703) / 17,894,361 = 47.5%.
- Peak-to-average: 4,686,703 / (17,894,361 / 12) = 3.14. August is worth more than three average months.
- Gini: sort the months and multiply each by the weight 2i - 13.
| i | Nights (sorted) | Weight | Product |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 244,814 | -11 | -2,692,954 |
| 2 | 266,459 | -9 | -2,398,131 |
| 3 | 372,830 | -7 | -2,609,810 |
| 4 | 412,096 | -5 | -2,060,480 |
| 5 | 431,729 | -3 | -1,295,187 |
| 6 | 742,949 | -1 | -742,949 |
| 7 | 1,075,117 | 1 | 1,075,117 |
| 8 | 1,208,153 | 3 | 3,624,459 |
| 9 | 2,275,318 | 5 | 11,376,590 |
| 10 | 2,364,973 | 7 | 16,554,811 |
| 11 | 3,813,220 | 9 | 34,318,980 |
| 12 | 4,686,703 | 11 | 51,553,733 |
The products add up to 106,704,179. The Gini is 106,704,179 / (12 × 17,894,361) = 0.497. The same procedure works for any European region in the table, and for a province or municipality wherever the national statistics office publishes monthly nights at that level.
What public plans say
Spreading demand across the year is a stated goal in Italy too. The national Tourism Strategic Plan 2023-2027 mentions it several times, for example among its objectives: "to foster the deseasonalisation of the offer" (our translation; Ministry of Tourism, Piano Strategico del Turismo 2023-2027, p. 139, in Italian). Many European countries share the goal: the OECD cites, among others, Croatia's 2030 strategy and Portugal's 2027 strategy, which sets a numerical target for its own seasonality index (OECD, Tourism Trends and Policies 2024).
An indicator like the Gini gives such goals a repeatable measure: calculate it every year, with the same formula, and compare it with similar regions.
Mistakes to avoid when quoting these figures
- Comparing 2025 with 2024 on Italian totals: the growth is partly an effect of the survey's new coverage (ISTAT).
- Using only July and August in the Alps: there is a second, winter season that indicator does not see.
- Turning the table into a league table: a very seasonal region is not "worse"; its offer is tied to the sea or to snow. The data show where the empty months are, they do not hand out grades.
- Forgetting people who do not sleep in accommodation: day visitors and guests of relatives do not appear in these statistics.
What we do not know
- Whether Italian seasonality is really declining after 2024: 2025 has a series break and regional 2026 data are not yet published.
- How much of the busier shoulder months is new demand and how much is demand shifted from summer: the indicators cannot tell.
- Municipal detail: it exists in national databases, but needs care around statistical confidentiality and municipalities with few establishments.
What you can find on Play the Event today
Play the Event works on events and seasonality together: organizers create events, hosts need reasons for people to come in the empty months. Today you will find guides built on official data with a stated method, like this one, and free tools that explain how they calculate: the seasonality thermometer for an Italian province goes from region to province with ISTAT data, and seasonality of your data redoes the peak-share and Gini calculation on your own twelve monthly values. For accommodation, restaurants, local authorities and DMOs there is no dedicated feature yet: we are building it with the people who will use it. Destinations and accommodation providers: tell us how you work. If you organize events, the guide Organizing an off-season event starts from these numbers and gets to the right date.
Technical terms (nights spent, NUTS 2, series break) are explained in the tourism seasonality glossary.
Sources
All sources were consulted on 1 October 2026. Calculations on Eurostat and Japan Tourism Agency data are by the Play the Event editorial team, using the method described in the text.
- Nights spent at tourist accommodation establishments - monthly data (tour_occ_nim) - Eurostat, updated 1 October 2026. Consulted on 1 October 2026.
- Nights spent at tourist accommodation establishments by month and NUTS 2 region (tour_occ_nin2m) - Eurostat, updated 22 September 2026. Consulted on 1 October 2026.
- Seasonality in the tourist accommodation sector - Eurostat, Statistics Explained, 2026 (data extracted May 2026). Consulted on 1 October 2026.
- Tourism statistics - seasonality at regional level - Eurostat, Statistics Explained, 2025 (2024 data, extracted November 2025). Consulted on 1 October 2026.
- 宿泊旅行統計調査 (2024年・年間値（確定値）) - Overnight Travel Statistics Survey, 2024 annual confirmed values - Japan Tourism Agency (観光庁), 2025 (27 June). Consulted on 1 October 2026.
- Flussi turistici - III trimestre 2025 - ISTAT (Italian National Institute of Statistics), 2025 (3 December). Consulted on 1 October 2026.
- Movimento dei clienti negli esercizi ricettivi per tipo di esercizio - mensili (dataflow 122_54_DF_DCSC_TUR_3, descrizione) - ISTAT (Italian National Institute of Statistics), consulted 2026. Consulted on 1 October 2026.
- Il Piano Strategico del Turismo 2023-2027 - Ministry of Tourism (Italy), 2024 (September). Consulted on 1 October 2026.
- OECD Tourism Trends and Policies 2024 - OECD, 2024. Consulted on 1 October 2026.
Frequently asked questions
How much do July and August weigh in Italian tourism?
In 2024, 34.5% of nights spent in Italian tourist accommodation, against 31.3% for the EU average (calculation on Eurostat data). For Italian residents alone the share rises to 38.7%.
Which Italian region is the most seasonal?
On 2024 Eurostat data, Calabria: 58.8% of nights in July and August and a Gini of 0.608. The least seasonal is Lazio, with 20.6% and a Gini of 0.122.
Why not use 2025 data for Italy?
From 2025 Italian statistics also include private rentals run on a non-business basis, and ISTAT warns that totals are not comparable with earlier years. The 2025 Gini is still 0.302, but totals grow because of the wider coverage.
Can I redo the calculation for another region or country?
Yes: download the twelve monthly figures for nights spent from Eurostat table tour_occ_nin2m (regions) or tour_occ_nim (countries), or from your national statistics office, and follow the steps of the Apulia example.
Put it into practice
Free tools for this guide
- Free tool
Seasonality thermometer for an Italian province
Choose an Italian province and see month by month how concentrated tourism is, with official ISTAT data and a comparison with the European Union.
- Free tool
Seasonality of your data
Enter twelve monthly values and measure how seasonal you are with Eurostat's indicators: share of the peak months, Gini coefficient and coefficient of variation.